能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长关系的实证研究——以河南省为例

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Energy Consumption, Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth——Taking Henan Province as an Example

摘要: 结合河南省1978-2010年间的样本数据,采用协整分析、VECM模型和格兰杰因果检验等方法,实证分析了能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长三者之间的关系。结果表明,能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长三者之间具有长期均衡关系,碳排放与能源消耗和经济增长之间存在单向的格兰杰因果关系,能源消耗与经济增长之间具有双向因果关系。

Abstract: By using cointegration analysis, VECM model and granger causality test, this paper empirical analyzed the relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth based on the sample date of Henan province from 1978 to 2010. The study showed that there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth; it was one-way granger causality between carbon emissions and energy consumption and economic growth, and it exited two-way granger causality between energy consumption and economic growth.