基于极值理论的煤矿事故风险分析
Risk Analysis of Coal Mine Accidents Based on Extreme Value Theory
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摘要: 运用极值理论,根据我国近十余年煤矿事故中每月死亡人员的统计数据,分别得出了在不同置信水平下,我国煤矿事故中的最大风险损失值,即未来事故中每月最大的潜在死亡人数,从而为我国开展煤矿安全生产管理工作提供理论指导。Abstract: According to the statistics of monthly dead personnel data from coal mine accident in our recent ten years,we can draw a conclusion that,given different confidence level of mining accident,there is the maximum loss value of different risks,namely the biggest potential accident death toll in each month based on the extreme value theory,which provides a theoretical guidance for the management of safety production in coal mine field.