严景宁, 刘庆文. 基于CAPM模型的水库PPP项目特许定价建模及仿真[J]. 南昌航空大学学报(社会科学版), 2017, 19(4): 26-34. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-1912.2017.04.005
引用本文: 严景宁, 刘庆文. 基于CAPM模型的水库PPP项目特许定价建模及仿真[J]. 南昌航空大学学报(社会科学版), 2017, 19(4): 26-34. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-1912.2017.04.005
YAN Jing-ning, LIU Qing-wen. Concession Price Modeling and Simulation of the Reservoir PPP Project Based on the CAPM Model[J]. JOURNAL OF NANCHANG HANGKONG UNIVERSITY(SOCLAL SCIENCES), 2017, 19(4): 26-34. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-1912.2017.04.005
Citation: YAN Jing-ning, LIU Qing-wen. Concession Price Modeling and Simulation of the Reservoir PPP Project Based on the CAPM Model[J]. JOURNAL OF NANCHANG HANGKONG UNIVERSITY(SOCLAL SCIENCES), 2017, 19(4): 26-34. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-1912.2017.04.005

基于CAPM模型的水库PPP项目特许定价建模及仿真

Concession Price Modeling and Simulation of the Reservoir PPP Project Based on the CAPM Model

  • 摘要: 水库PPP项目特许定价的合理性和有效性既是水库PPP项目成功实施的关键,也是提高参与各方合作效率的关键因素。基于CAPM模型,提出了水库PPP项目投资回报率CAPM模型。以现金流量分析原理为理论支撑,综合考虑特许经营期、投资回报率、工程投资、年供水量和通货膨胀率等五项关键因素,构建了水库PPP项目特许定价模型。应用本模型对某水库PPP项目的特许定价进行仿真计算,仿真计算结果与该项目特许定价的实际值较接近,从而表明了本模型的科学性、合理性和实用性。最后,总结归纳了本研究的结论,并提出了完善水库PPP项目特许定价理论体系的建议。

     

    Abstract: The rationality and validity of the reservoir PPP project is not only the key to the successful implementation of the reservoir PPP project, but also the key factor to improve the efficiency of all participants involved in the project. Based on the CAPM model, the paper puts forward the investment yield rate CAPM model of the reservoir PPP project. It constructs the concession price model of the reservoir PPP project by comprehensive considering the five key factors such as the concession duration, the investment yield rate, the project investment, the annual water supply volume, the rate of the inflation and the cash flow analysis principle as the theoretical support. The model is used to simulate the concession price of a reservoir PPP project. The simulation result is closer to the actual value of the projet concession price. Thus it shows that the model is scientific, reasonable and practical. Finally, the conclusions of the research are summarized, and the suggestions for improving the concession price theoretical system of the reservoir PPP project are put forward.

     

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