Study on Forecasting of the Aeronautic Cargo Capacity in China Based on ARIMA Model

It is shown that the development of China's aeronautic cargo capacity has an obvious ascending trend and seasonal character based on the analysis on monthly cargo capacity serial from January 2002 to December 2009 with the PASW Statistics software.The ARIMA times series model of China's aeronautic cargo capacity is established,and the result indicates that the ARIMA model has good fitting effects on the primary data series,and the forecast error is very small,which can be used to forecast short-term aeronautic cargo capacity,and it will further provide some effective basis to supervise the native aeronautic cargo market.