Abstract: To assess the risk of runway excursion during aircraft landing, this study employs pavement skid resistance as the evaluation index. A finite-element simulation model coupling tire, fluid, and pavement interactions was developed to analyze the influence of key operational parameters on landing safety. For a B777 aircraft, with a critical skid resistance value of 20 set as the warning threshold, the evolution of pavement skid resistance was simulated under various conditions, including different water film thicknesses, pavement types, and skid states. The results indicate that grooved pavements can significantly increase the safe operating speed limit on wet runways, with an improvement of up to 94%. The warning speed derived from skid resistance analysis provides more advanced warning than the traditional hydroplaning speed. Although pavement resurfacing can enhance skid resistance, drainage measures such as grooving remain essential to eliminate deviation risks under thick water film conditions and ensure operational safety. The model and evaluation method established in this study provide a theoretical foundation and technical support for airport pavement maintenance, runway safety warnings, and dynamic landing risk assessment.