刘大双,李微,柏国伟,等. 基于BKA-LSTM-CNN的埋地腐蚀管道剩余寿命预测[J]. 失效分析与预防,2026,21(2):153-164. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-6214.2026.02.007
    引用本文: 刘大双,李微,柏国伟,等. 基于BKA-LSTM-CNN的埋地腐蚀管道剩余寿命预测[J]. 失效分析与预防,2026,21(2):153-164. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-6214.2026.02.007
    LIU Dashuang,LI Wei,BO Guowei,et al. Remaining life prediction for buried corrosion pipelines based on BKA-LSTM-CNN[J]. Failure analysis and prevention,2026,21(2):153-164. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-6214.2026.02.007
    Citation: LIU Dashuang,LI Wei,BO Guowei,et al. Remaining life prediction for buried corrosion pipelines based on BKA-LSTM-CNN[J]. Failure analysis and prevention,2026,21(2):153-164. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-6214.2026.02.007

    基于BKA-LSTM-CNN的埋地腐蚀管道剩余寿命预测

    Remaining Life Prediction for Buried Corrosion Pipelines Based on BKA-LSTM-CNN

    • 摘要: 埋地金属管道在复杂土壤环境中长期服役时,因腐蚀减薄引起的失效问题直接威胁管网安全运行。本文通过分析管道腐蚀监测数据,构建融合空间特征提取与时间序列建模的深度学习框架,对管道剩余寿命进行预测。结果表明:基于随机森林算法(RF)的管道寿命影响因素特征重要性量化分析,服役年限与土壤pH值最为关键(31.9%和21.7%)。与卷积神经网络(CNN)、长短期记忆网络(LSTM)、卷积神经网络−长短期记忆网络(CNN-LSTM)模型相比,黑翅鸢优化算法(BKA)的BKA-CNN-LSTM模型在收敛速度与预测精度上表现出显著优势,其评价指标平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方误差(MSE)、均方根误差(RMSE)分别是2.314、0.238和0.350 9,决定系数(R2)提升至0.967 5,预测值均分布在95%误差带范围内且接近于1。表明该模型能够准确表征管道腐蚀的发展规律,对管道安全评估与维护决策具有重要价值。

       

      Abstract: Corrosion-induced wall thinning in buried metal pipelines poses a significant threat to the long-term safety and integrity of pipeline networks operating in complex soil environments. To predict the remaining service life of such pipelines, this study constructs a deep learning framework that integrates spatial feature extraction and time-series modeling by analyzing pipeline corrosion monitoring data. An initial quantitative analysis of the influencing factors using random forest (RF) identifies service time and soil pH as the most critical features, with important scores of 31.9% and 21.7%, respectively. Compared with the convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), and convolutional neural network - long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM) models, the BKA-CNN-LSTM model of the black kite algorithm (BKA) shows significant advantages in convergence speed and prediction accuracy. The model achieves a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.967 5, with mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), and root mean square error (RMSE) values of 2.314, 0.238, and 0.350 9, respectively. All predicted values fall within the 95% error band. The results indicate that the proposed model can accurately characterize pipeline corrosion development, offering considerable value for pipeline safety assessment and maintenance decision-making.

       

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