Abstract: In bolted joint structures, the axial stress distribution characteristics within the hole region have a significant impact on potential failure modes and their prevention. This study aims to analyze the axial stress distribution of bolt holes in interference-fit composite plates. First, by postulating that the axial stress in the bolt-hole region follows a polynomial expression, an axial stress equation was established. A quartic polynomial was then employed to analyze the effects of interference fit, preload, and friction coefficient on the axial stress distribution. On this basis, a finite element model of a single-lap, single-bolt interference-fit composite plate was developed to systematically elucidate the mechanisms and influence patterns of these factors on axial stress. The results demonstrate that increasing the interference fit effectively suppresses stress concentration around the bolt hole and delays local failure, with an especially pronounced effect when the interference fit is approximately 1%. Reducing the preload to approximately 6 kN significantly decreases the peak stresses at the hole edge and within the clamping zone, thereby improving the structural damage tolerance. Increasing the friction coefficient reduces the overall stress level in the hole region. However, excessively high friction coefficients may induce additional axial tensile stresses, further promoting failure. Owing to the combined effects of Hertzian-type contact pressure distribution under the bolt head and edge effects, noticeable differences in stress distribution occur across different layers, leading to discrepancies between finite element results and theoretical predictions for the upper surface of the composite plate. Furthermore, extremely low preload or excessively high friction coefficients can further magnify the deviation between theoretical and simulation results.